Myanmar military faces significant setbacks
Myanmar's military government has lost significant control over its border with China within a matter of days.
A coordinated assault by three ethnic insurgent armies in Shan State, backed by other anti-government armed groups, has successfully taken over numerous military outposts. They have also seized control of border crossings and key trade routes connecting Myanmar to China.
This marks a severe setback for the military junta, which took power in February 2021. After grappling with a two-and-a-half-year armed uprising triggered by its ill-fated coup, the military now appears vulnerable and potentially susceptible to defeat.
In response to the attack, the government has employed airstrikes and artillery barrages, resulting in the displacement of thousands of residents. Despite these efforts, it has been unsuccessful in regaining lost ground or bringing in reinforcements. Among the casualties is believed to be Brigadier General Aung Kyaw Lwin, the commander of government forces in northern Shan State—the highest-ranking officer to have fallen in combat since the coup.
What adds significance to this assault is that, for the first time, the well-equipped insurgents in Shan State have explicitly aligned themselves with the broader campaign to overthrow the junta and reinstate democratic governance.
However, other dynamics are in play. The three insurgent groups involved have longstanding territorial ambitions, and notably, China, usually a restraining force on groups along its Myanmar border, has not intervened to prevent this operation.
This lack of intervention may be linked to China's frustration with the military government's failure to address the proliferation of scam centers in Shan State. These centers exploit thousands of Chinese citizens and other foreigners for forced labor, and the insurgents have expressed the intention to shut them down as part of their objectives.
The roots of this development can be traced back to 2021 when peaceful protests against the coup were brutally suppressed by the military and police, prompting opposition activists to advocate for a nationwide armed uprising against the junta.
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