Myanmar's junta calls for elections amid civil war

Four years after overthrowing Myanmar’s democratically elected government in a 2021 coup, the military regime is intensifying efforts to legitimize its rule by advancing plans for a 2025 election. 

In recent months, the junta has shared electoral roadmaps with neighboring nations, published census data to draft voter registries, and emphasized its commitment to ensuring “stability” for the polls through state media. These steps mark the regime’s most definitive signal of intent to proceed with an election since seizing power. However, the initiative unfolds against a backdrop of widespread armed resistance, with military control eroding in multiple regions.
Critics, including analysts, insurgent groups, and diplomatic insiders, warn that the election drive risks exacerbating violence as both the junta and opposition factions compete to consolidate territorial dominance. The junta’s exclusion of dozens of dissident groups and restriction of participation to pre-approved, military-aligned parties has drawn condemnation, with detractors dismissing the process as a staged exercise.
No official election date has been set, but reports suggest voting may occur in late 2025 across 160–170 of Myanmar’s 330 townships—areas where the junta retains tenuous control. A December 2024 census, conducted on the ground in just 145 townships, underscores the logistical and security challenges. A Naypyidaw-based source, speaking anonymously, revealed the regime aims to “stabilize” these zones ahead of the polls, acknowledging the military’s precarious hold.
Meanwhile, a coalition of ethnic armed groups and grassroots resistance forces has seized strategic territories, confining junta influence largely to central lowland regions. This shift has intensified pressure on the military, which faces relentless attacks in border areas and heartland strongholds alike.
“The election push will inevitably trigger unprecedented levels of violence,” cautioned Ye Myo Hein, a Myanmar researcher at the United States Institute of Peace. “Both sides view territorial control as pivotal to their political goals.”
As Myanmar’s state of emergency nears its January 2025 expiration, speculation grows over whether the junta will extend emergency powers or announce an election timeline. Either decision is likely to inflame tensions in a nation already reeling from displacement, airstrikes, and humanitarian crises. 
With millions displaced since the coup, the prospect of polls offers little hope for reconciliation, instead deepening fears of further bloodshed.