Deepening Canada-India standoff seen as a short term boost for Modi-Trudeau

The prime ministers of India and Canada could benefit politically in the short term from the unprecedented expulsion of top diplomats from each country, analysts said on Tuesday.

On Monday, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, alleging their involvement in the murder of a Sikh separatist leader and hinting at a broader operation targeting Indian dissidents in Canada. In response, India ordered six Canadian diplomats to leave the country.
While these actions have strained bilateral relations to an unprecedented low, both Modi and Trudeau may see political advantages from the situation. As leaders in their third terms, each faces distinct political challenges.
For Modi, the move could strengthen his image as a tough leader on national security. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s former foreign secretary, noted, "People will view the Indian government as standing firm against intimidation and coercion by a developed country." He added that Modi and his administration would likely receive strong public support for this stance.
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) experienced a setback in a June election, losing its majority and forcing Modi to rely on regional allies to maintain a coalition government. The standoff with Canada could help rally nationalist sentiment in his favor.
For Trudeau, whose Liberal Party lags behind in polls ahead of a national election scheduled by October 2025, the diplomatic dispute may offer a temporary distraction from internal political pressure. Recent reports suggested that some discontented lawmakers were pushing for Trudeau’s resignation in favor of new leadership.
The leaders of Canada’s two left-leaning opposition parties, whose support Trudeau needs to sustain his minority government, have expressed support for the expulsions, further solidifying his position amidst the crisis.