India picks its friends as it treads between Russia and the West

Indian Premier Narendra Modi’s bear hug with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the 22nd India–Russia Annual Summit in July 2024 irked the US administration and many other Western capitals. 

As a leading proponent of the ‘liberal’ global order and a champion of law and morality in international relations, the Western world, spearheaded by the United States, imposed sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many expected India, as a close ally of the United States and a member of the Quad, to align with the Western stance.
However, adhering to its principles of ‘freedom of choice’ and ‘strategic autonomy’ in foreign policy, India chose a different path. New Delhi called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict while maintaining its strong ties with Moscow.
One of the key factors driving India’s relationship with Russia is oil. In 2023, the trade volume between the two countries reached $57 billion, with plans to increase it to $100 billion by 2030. India is Russia’s largest buyer of seaborne oil and its second-largest oil importer, just behind China, benefiting from discounted prices.
During the 2023–2024 fiscal year, Russian crude oil accounted for approximately 36 percent of India’s total oil imports, amounting to about 232.31 million tonnes, or 1.70 billion barrels. Between April 2022 and May 2024, Indian oil companies saved over $10.5 billion by purchasing discounted crude oil from Russia.
This shift in oil imports has allowed India to reduce its dependence on oil from the Middle East and other Asian countries, where prices had tightened following additional supply cuts by Saudi Arabia in July 2023.
Additionally, between 60 and 70 percent of India’s conventional military hardware is of Soviet or post-Russian origin. Over the past two decades, Russia has supplied approximately 65 percent of India’s arms purchases, valued at more than $60 billion.
Balancing its relationship with Moscow during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has not been easy for India. It has had to reassure the West that its strategic focus on countering China in the Indo-Pacific remains intact, while also ensuring that its ties with Moscow remain stable.
In June 2024, India declined to endorse a statement signed by over 80 countries at a peace summit in Switzerland, which called for the protection of Ukraine’s ‘territorial integrity.’ India maintained that lasting peace could only be achieved through a solution mutually acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia.
India’s stance on Russia is driven by material interests and guided by its commitment to an autonomous foreign policy and the freedom to choose its alliances.