Bangladesh- India: Diplomatic Turmoil Turns into Chronic Upheaval on Bilateral Relations

Ironically, the so-called Honeymoon period of Sheikh Hasina and Narendra Modi hegemony collapsed by the Anti-discrimination Student Movement in July 2024 which drastically affected two trusted neighbors unprecedentedly that had never been seen before in the history of Bangladesh and Indian relationships since our independence. After being ousted Sheikh Hasina regime on 5th August, 2024 the long-lasting relationship between Bangladesh and India came into a serious upfront both diplomatically and culturally since 2009.

The yellow journalism about Hindu minorities of Bangladesh by Indian media, the Arrest of ISKCON leader Hindu monk Chinmoy Krishna, Anti- Indian movement in Bangladesh made the situation tricky for both the Bangladesh interim Government and the Indian Government. However, the relationship is now being fractured in every aspect.

Strategically Bangladesh was bound to follow the policy on every aspect of the Indian government due to geo-strategic positions. But, melting the relations with the Pakistani regime nowadays and the heavy engagement of China over the years put some serious strategic threats towards the Modi-led Indian government, particularly for the northeastern province of India. Discomfortable relations with closest neighbors like Sri Lanka, China, Maldives, and Bhutan have triggered India’s concern massively in recent days. Moreover, the last recognized friend like Bangladesh has denounced the domination of India boldly for the very first time in their history.

Both of the neighbors feel insecurity through border killings, illegal penetration, human trafficking, water sharing disputes, and many more in the past. But nowadays, a conventional security threat arises about minorities. Regarding the issue both mainstream political parties of India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Congress are being consented despite their fighting against one another in their parliament. On the other hand, the rise of the new Interim Government in Bangladesh has become a headache for India. Interestingly in Bangladesh, all the political parties have also promised to keep fighting against Indian illegal hegemony towards Bangladesh over the years. Even they urged the government to disclose all the treaties to the nation that were signed before the Sheikh Hasina regime. If that happens, the anti-Indian campaign will be accelerated more in Bangladesh. In recent times, Border disputes have been unbearable for Bangladesh. Disputes over the Chapainawabganj, Naogaon, and Patgram border led to huge tensions over BSF and BGB with local people.

For the sake of Indian media propaganda, following the first day of the new Bangladesh, the Indian Hindu community raised questions about the security of Hindus in Bangladesh.  However, the report shows present Hindu community is safer than the Hasina regime. Pointing to these issues, Indian Hindu extremists continue an anti-Bangladeshi agenda whereas Bangladeshi mass people react to it by boycotting Indian products. Foreign adviser of Bangladesh Interim Government MR. Touhid Hossain demanded that “To destroy the image of Bangladesh on the International community and unable to digest the fall of Sheikh Hasina, their media circulated fake news about repercussions and persecutions on Bangladeshi Hindus which is completely unacceptable from them.” Later on, the arrest of the Spokespersons of Sammilita Sanatani Jagoron Jote monk Chinmoy Das for disrespecting the Bangladeshi national flag added fuel to the protesters of India. The irony, the massacre of Hindus of Kolkata was also telecast on the news channel of Republic Bangla which is just ridiculous.  Whereas Bangladeshi Muslims take the responsibility to watch over Hindu Durga festivals without any self-interest so that the Hindu community feels safe and enjoys their festivals.

Despite having a huge trade imbalance, Bangladesh has had the second-largest market of India over the years. But, with the demise of the Sheikh Hasina regime in August, the Indian market saw a huge downfall regarding export-oriented products which are almost 28.85% lower than in the same month of 2023. Benapole -Petrapole and Hili land ports were completely shut down along with other river ports for five days which created the Bangladeshi market unstable. Again, Indian authorities gave a ban on onions export but farmers have got more money to export it in Bangladesh and Nepal rather than selling locally. In response, they protested against their authority as well. According to the Economic Times, from India, 35% of global yarn exports go to Bangladesh which was curtailed in a big number in August 2024. India has lost a large number of tourists and health service seekers for not allowing any Bangladeshi from November. Even the owner of a hotel and motel in Kolkata protested against the decision. It is certain, that the bilateral economic downfall affects both sides unprecedentedly.

A pivotal question arises, Is Bangladesh able to evade the shadows of India? There is no doubt that, now in Bangladesh each of the individuals wants to keep away from Indian aggression. So, what will be the options for Bangladesh? First of all, the intimacy with China has played a crucial role here. China has been the Primary infrastructure stakeholder of Bangladesh over the years. Even Bangladesh is one of the prime partners of China for importing RMG’s raw materials. Noteworthy, strategically, China has a huge interest to work with Bangladesh regarding putting pressure on India. If China has got the tender of negotiating the “Teeta Master Plan”, that will be a real threat to India. Because India would neither afford 3000 Chinese people in the neck of the Siliguri corridor nor let proper Teesta’s water sharing to Bangladesh. Again, five decades later, there started trade relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan. A cargo ship full of commodities came twice to Bangladesh within one month. Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar of Pakistan says, “Bangladesh is our lost brother and Pakistan will support them in all possible ways.” It has another wing for Bangladesh to bargain with India. But This is a harsh reality for Bangladesh that it has to maintain at least minimum cooperation with India. Because the other neighbor Myanmar is another headache for Bangladesh.

India’s current position is also shaky due to multiple casualties. The Loss of a single majority of BJP in the last election, enduring hostilities in Manipur, continuous revolt of farmers in  Rajasthan and Bengaluru,  border disputes with Pakistan, and China, political instability with Maldives, Myanmar concern, possibility of new political party’s arrival in Bangladesh make them tough to settle in South Asia. Regarding all of that, they needed a lot of diplomatic discussions but apart from two diplomatic discussions, there are neither any possibilities to build a status quo nor any initiative has been taken to confront the dilemma.

Briefly, the dominance of India’s border with Bangladesh, or trampling of the Indian national flag in Bangladesh, Indian Hindutva organizations entering Calcutta sub-high commission and tearing down the Bangladeshi flag and vandalizing sub-high commission of Agartala in Bangladesh as a way to undermine India-Bangladesh relations deeper than Mariana trenches. Isn’t it a real threat to the whole of South Asia? -Source: policy watcher