Two Years of Coup in Myanmar: Still a Bleak Picture

February 1st, 2023 marks the second anniversary of Myanmar’s heinous military coup that sunk the country into a deeper political crisis. During the last year, the situation has reached an abysmal depth as the civil war intensified resulting in prolonged conflict and nationwide violence. As the People’s Defense Force (PDF) and other Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) are more organized than ever, the Junta regime is also becoming cornered.

However, the lack of adequate response by the international actors is further prolonging the brutality. Since the coup, Myanmar’s internal situation is marked by prolonged conflict, gross human rights violations, economic turmoil, and Kangaroo courts against the National League of Democracy (NLD) leaders. Hence, Myanmar still remains a bleak picture after two years of the audacious event.

On February 1st, 2021, Myanmar Military, popularly known as Tatmadaw staged a coup against the then-incumbent NLD government over a farcical allegation of election rigging. Tatmadaw arrested senior NLD leaders including Aung sun Suu Kyi and invoked a nationwide curfew. The mass people initially reacted by protesting, which quickly transformed into a Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). Tatmadaw’s violent crackdown on CDM and subsequent political turmoil led the country toward civil war. In response to Tatmadaw, National Unity Government (NUG) was formed and its armed wing, PDF has developed resistance against the Tatmadaw.

In the last year, PDF has become more organized than ever with military-grade weapons and an extended membership. Other EAOs are also continuing their struggle against the Tatmadaw. Over the last year, PDF and other EAOs have achieved remarkable success. Currently, the Junta regime has effective control over only 17% territory of Myanmar; which suggests that the trajectory of civil war is now favorable towards the resistance forces. As the resistance forces are becoming more united, Tatmadaw is becoming more cornered than ever.

Apart from the war trajectory, Myanmar is also marked by gross Human Rights violations and economic fallout. Since the beginning of the conflict, Tatmadaw is following a repressive policy to crush its opponents. During the last two years, 2890 people died at the hand of the Junta. Among them, at least 767 people were detained first. In the last two years, the Junta has also detained more than 16000 people. The conflict displaced 1.2 million Myanmar nationals internally and forced 70000 to migrate beyond the border. Many of these forced migrants took refuge in adjacent Thailand and India. Others took dangerous boat journeys toward Southeast Asia. 34000 civilian infrastructure including homes, schools, and prayer halls have been burned down in the last two years. Tatmadaw’s current air strike strategy is also putting civilians into deadly situations.

The subsequent economic fallout, western sanctions, and withdrawal of foreign investments are further affecting the common people. Currently, 40% of the total population is living under the poverty line. Soaring inflation, power shortage, and disruption in the supply chain due to conflict are also affecting the economy directly.

Besides seizing state power, Tatmadaw also launched a crackdown on democratic political leaders. Immediately after the coup, Junta Regime arrested top NLD leaders. It also put Suu Kyi on house arrest. Later Tatmadaw launched a Kangaroo court and Su Kyi faced trial for farcical allegations against her. Over the last two years, Su Kyi faced trial for alleged corruption, illegal possession, and flouting covid restrictions and in December 2022, she was sentenced to a total 33 years in jail.

However, such a dire situation is going on for the last two years largely because of the lackluster response from the international actors. Almost all great powers took inadequate response policies to maintain their geopolitical interest. We hardly saw any significant pressure on the Junta. But during the last year, the response from the international community is improving gradually. United Nations Security Council (UNSC) succeeded in adopting its first resolution on Myanmar that demanded ending atrocities. ASEAN also negotiated a five-point consensus with the Junta regime. However, the two most important points of that consensus- ceasing all violence and allowing humanitarian access have not been met yet by the Junta.

The renewed engagement of the US in Myanmar is also worth mentioning. The US has officially recognized genocide against the Rohingya. The US has also passed the ‘Burma Act’ to increase its engagement and aid the democratic struggle in Myanmar. It is likely that in the coming days, US involvement in Myanmar will increase.

The violent civil war in Myanmar is not an exclusive issue for Myanmar anymore as it is also spilling over on the neighbors. Recently, Myanmar has violated the airspace of its neighbors. It violated Indian and Thai airspace repeatedly within a very short timeline. Apart from India and Thailand, Bangladesh is also facing a hostile situation on the Myanmar border. Myanmar often violates airspace and shells along the border in Tumbru. Some of the shells also landed in Bangladesh. The waves of refugees are also affecting the neighbors.

The turmoil in Myanmar is also affecting the Rohingya crisis. The turmoil and ascension of the Junta halted repatriation indefinitely. The renewed conflict in Rakhine has also produced new Rohingya refugees who are currently living in the no man’s land along the porous Tumbru border. The prolonged conflict has also destabilized Rakhine. An Unstable Rakhine is a challenge for ensuring ‘safe and dignified’ repatriation.

Perhaps, NUG’s acknowledging the Rohingya as Myanmar citizen is the only positive development in the last two years. NUG’s acknowledgment is the first ever in the history of Rohingya citizen rights. NUG also pledged to provide citizenship if it emerges as victorious. Apart from NUG, Arakan Army- a major stakeholder in Rakhine also acknowledged the Rohingya as the citizen of Rakhine.

After two years of the coup, it seems the situation in Myanmar is not likely to lift without external pressure. The gross human rights violation, crackdown, draconian rule, and economic fallout demand the intervention of the world community. And the world community should not let the violence prolong anymore. Great powers such as the US, China and India, and ASEAN can play a crucial role in mitigating the conflict and brutality and presenting a democratic and vibrant Myanmar. For the last two years, the world has failed the citizens of Myanmar. It should not do so in the third year. -Source: Daily Asian Age