Impacts of Assad's fall on Bangladesh 

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria on 8 December, 2024 represents a profound shift in the political, social, and geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The collapse of a family's regime that had ruled for over five decades is not only a domestic turning point for Syria but also carries wide-ranging impacts for the region and the world, including countries like Bangladesh.

The Assad family's rule started in 1971, when Hafez al-Assad led a military coup to gain power, creating an authoritarian system marked by centralized authority and opposition repression. Following Hafez's death in 2000, his son, Bashar al-Assad, took over as president, raising expectations for reform.However, his tenure was marked by continued repression, economic challenges, and limited political freedoms.In 2011, the Arab Spring triggered pro-democracy protests across the Middle East, including Syria.The Assad regime's violent crackdown on demonstrators escalated into a civil war, drawing in various domestic and international actors. Over the years, the conflict resulted in significant loss of life, displacement of populations, and widespread destruction.

Several interconnected factors led to the eventual collapse of the Assad regimeincluding internal dissent, economic collapse, shifting international alliances, and the role of external actors. The Assad regime relied heavily on a coalition of loyalist military units, the Alawite minority, and key business elites. However, years of war, corruption, and economic mismanagement eroded this support base. By 2023, splits among high-ranking military officers, combined with growing dissent within the Alawite community, left the regime fragmented. Reports suggest that even loyalist units began negotiating with opposition forces. Besides, the economic toll of the war cannot be neglected. Sanctions imposed by Western nations, combined with the destruction of key infrastructure, led to hyperinflation, widespread poverty, and a collapse of basic services. 

Syria's oil exports, a significant revenue source, had fallen to near-zero levels by 2022. Public dissatisfaction grew as living conditions worsened, creating fertile ground for rebellion. Lastly, the Assad regime's survival for over a decade of conflict was largely due to external support, particularly from Russia and Iran. Russia provided military backing, including airpower, while Iran deployed ground forces and militias. However, by 2023, both countries faced their own economic and geopolitical challenges, leading to a decline in support. Analysts believe that Russia's preference to focus on its domestic issues, along with decreasing Iranian resources, left Assad vulnerable.

Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaalso known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, played a pivotal role in the rebellious movement. A former member of al-Qaeda in Iraq, al-Julani returned to Syria during the civil war, initially leading Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria.In 2016, al-Julani rebranded his organization as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), distancing it from al-Qaeda to gain broader local and international legitimacy.

Under al-Julani's leadership, HTS became Syria's most cohesive and powerful opposition force, controlling significant territory in Idlib and the surrounding areas.HTS's final offensive in late 2024 was decisive.On December 8, rebel forces launched a coordinated attackon Damascus. The rapid advance overwhelmed government defenses, leading to the city's capture. President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia, where he was granted asylum, effectively ending his regime.

In the aftermath of Assad's departure, Syria now faces a complex and uncertain future. HTS, in control of significant territories, has established a temporary government. Economically, Syria is in ruins. Years of civil war, international sanctions, and infrastructural destruction have left the country impoverished, with a significant portion of the population living below the poverty line.In case of security aspects, the fall of Assad has reignited regional tensions. Turkey's involvement in northern Syria, Israel's security concerns, and Kurdish aspirations for autonomy have created a volatile situation. The power vacuum has also invited increased involvement from global powers like the United States and China.

Impacts on Bangladesh: Although geographically distant, the fall of Assad's regime has impacts on Bangladesh in several areas. Firstly, Bangladesh's foreign policy emphasizes non-alignment, but the changing Middle Eastern dynamics require recalibration. As global powers compete for influence in Syria, Bangladesh must navigate its relations with key players like United States, Russia, Turkey, and China.Secondly,The Middle East hosts over 2.5 million Bangladeshi migrant workers, whose remittances are vital for Bangladesh's economy. 

Any instability in the region could jeopardize their livelihoods, necessitating proactive measures from the government.Thirdly,the rise of Islamist factions like HTS in Syria could embolden extremist groups globally. Bangladesh, which has faced its own challenges with radicalization, must remain vigilant against ideological spillovers.Fourthly,Bangladesh has a history of participating in international peacekeeping missions and providing humanitarian aid. In the Syrian context, Bangladesh could play a role in rebuilding efforts and supporting displaced populations.Finally, The Syrian uprising highlights the dangers of corruption, repression, and economic disparity. Bangladesh can draw lessons by prioritizing inclusive development, reducing corruption, and strengthening democratic institutions to ensure long-term stability.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime marks a significant moment for Syria and the Middle East. While it brings hope for a new beginning, the challenges of rebuilding a war-torn nation, addressing deep-seated grievances, and ensuring regional stability are immense. As Syria embarks on a new chapter, its journey will have far-reaching implications for the Middle East and the world.For Bangladesh, the developments in Syria offer both opportunities and challenges, increasing the need for a proactive and adaptive foreign policy. -Source: Daily Observer