What a Second Trump Presidency Means for Bangladesh

In the US presidential election on November 5, Donald Trump of the Republican Party won a decisive victory, and he is scheduled to succeed Joe Biden as the US president on January 20, 2025. The upcoming change in the US administration is likely to substantially affect ties between Bangladesh and the United States, in areas including politics, the economy, migration, strategic and security ties, climate change, and humanitarian cooperation.

Effects on Bangladesh’s Internal Politics

In contrast with the Biden administration’s moral and ideological emphasis on democracy and human rights in U.S. foreign policy, Trump is more pragmatic and transactional. The Biden administration has actively supported the interim government of Bangladesh under Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, which was formed in the aftermath of the popular uprising of August. Trump is unlikely to demonstrate similar levels of enthusiasm for the interim government. 

In fact, many analysts have argued that Trump is likely to view the interim government unfavorably owing to Yunus’ closeness with prominent Democrats, especially the Clintons. Immediately after Trump’s election win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, Yunus, speaking at a conference in Paris, compared the result to “a solar eclipse,” adding that “Trump’s win has hit us so hard that…  I could hardly speak. I lost all strength.” Such comments are unlikely to endear him to the famously thin-skinned Trump.

Moreover, in a tweet published on October 31, Trump condemned so-called “barbaric violence” against Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh, and commented that “it would have never happened” under his watch. This should be viewed as a demonstration of U.S. electoral politics, as both the Republicans and the Democrats sought to mobilize Indian American and Hindu American votes in their favor. However, some analysts have interpreted this post as a sign that Washington under the Trump administration is going to view Bangladesh through India’s lens once again. 

Electoral politics and potential personal feelings aside, U.S. foreign policy is primarily guided by its national interests as understood by its policymakers. The current government in Dhaka is positively disposed toward Washington, and that is unlikely to alter under the Trump presidency. Already, the interim government has extended warm congratulations to President-elect Trump and expressed its wish to cooperate with his administration. 

Hence, while there are possibilities that the upcoming Trump administration may voice its concerns over the rights of minorities in Bangladesh or some other issues, the United States under Trump would be unlikely to undertake broad measures against Bangladesh unless Washington’s core interests are threatened. The India factor is one to watch in this regard (more on that below). 

Impact on the Economy and Migration

During his first term, Trump pursued a protectionist economic policy, and that is likely to be replicated in his second term. Since the United States is the single largest importer of Bangladesh’s primary export goods, ready-made garments (RMG), the possible imposition of tariffs and other non-tariff barriers on Bangladeshi products by the upcoming Trump administration is a serious potential challenge for Dhaka. 

Already under the Biden administration, Bangladesh-U.S. trade has dwindled, and the flow of US foreign direct investment (FDI) to Bangladesh has reduced. The situation may worsen under Trump if Washington adopts a protectionist policy. However, there is a different possibility as well. It is likely that the ongoing China-U.S. trade war would escalate under Trump, and Dhaka can use this to its advantage by expanding its RMG exports to the United States if rival products from China are placed under new tariffs. 

Meanwhile, the United States is currently the third-largest source of remittances for Bangladesh, and thousands of Bangladeshis have immigrated to the U.S. during the Biden administration. However, taking into account Trump’s openly anti-immigrant rhetoric and his migration policy during the first term, it is likely that he would impose restrictions on migration to the country. This can negatively affect Bangladeshi migration to the United States and remittance inflows.

Security and Strategic Ties

At present, Bangladesh pursues a balanced and neutral position on the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and China, as evidenced by its Indo-Pacific Outlook. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War and the war in the Middle East had largely kept the focus of the Biden administration on Europe and the Middle East. The upcoming Trump administration is likely to refocus on China and the Indo-Pacific region. Accordingly, the United States is likely to engage more with Bangladesh. This presents both challenges and opportunities for Dhaka. 

India is a major US partner in the Indo-Pacific region, and it unfavorably views the change of government in Bangladesh that occurred in August. If the upcoming Trump administration indeed views Bangladesh through the prism of Indian security interests, it is likely to create complications for the interim government. On the other hand, by using skillful diplomacy in the context of greater US involvement in the region, Bangladesh can strive to deepen its security cooperation and strategic ties with the United States.

Climate Change and Humanitarian Cooperation

Trump is a known skeptic on climate change, and he has vowed to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement once again, having done so in his first term (the U.S. then rejoined the agreement under Biden). 

Climate change poses a serious challenge for Bangladesh, which is one of the most vulnerable states in the world. Bangladesh bears little responsibility for the distortions in the climate, and it requires international assistance to cope with the negative consequences. However, considering Trump’s views on climate change, Bangladesh is unlikely to obtain much climate assistance under the upcoming U.S. administration.

Another area where Bangladesh may see less U.S. assistance is aid for the sizable population of refugees. Bangladesh currently hosts more than 1.3 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, and international humanitarian aid for the Rohingya is already dwindling. At present, the United States is the largest contributor of humanitarian aid for the Rohingya. This trend may continue under Trump, but the volume of aid may be reduced. 

During its first term, the Trump administration had demonstrated little interest in facilitating the repatriation of the Rohingya refugees, and the situation is unlikely to change in the second term. Moreover, the interim government has pushed for the resettlement of some Rohingya refugees in third countries, and the United States was envisioned as one of the destinations. However, taking into account Trump’s views on migration, this option is unlikely to get much traction under his administration. 

The Way Forward

Taking into account all the factors involved, Bangladesh should prepare for the second Trump presidency. After Trump’s inauguration, Dhaka should carefully monitor the trajectory of U.S. policies and formulate its response. Bangladesh should enhance its political and diplomatic engagement with the United States under the Trump administration, and inform the U.S. of its views on its internal and international outlook. 

In particular, Dhaka should emphasize to Washington that it should have an independent partnership with the U.S. without being influenced by any other state’s lens. Also, Dhaka should duly notify the upcoming Trump administration that the government is striving to protect its minorities, and the news about the persecution of minorities has been greatly exaggerated.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh should strive to enhance its economic partnership with the United States under the Trump administration and shield itself from US protectionist policies. Similarly, Dhaka should emphasize to the US its support for a free, open, secure, and peaceful Indo-Pacific region, and enhance its military-strategic cooperation with the latter, while carefully avoiding entanglement in military alliances. 

Last but not least, Dhaka should have realistic expectations about the Trump administration’s policies on migration, climate assistance, and humanitarian cooperation, and brace for any setback in these spheres.

Under the upcoming Trump administration, global politics is going to witness new upheavals and transformations. Bangladesh should accordingly be prepared for any potential negative repercussions in its political, economic, environmental, and humanitarian spheres, while searching for possible areas of mutually beneficial cooperation with the United States. -Source: the diplomat